Real-time, human-source
political risk intelligence

Millennium assists company boards and investment managers in planning for investments in Emerging Europe. We deliver intelligence on critical political and regulatory risks to help clients maximise value and opportunity. We provide advice to build strategies to successfully manage and mitigate ‘soft’ risks in opaque markets.

Locally embedded, globally aware

Millennium adds first-hand knowledge of the personalities, the motivations, the strengths and weaknesses of local decision-makers to an understanding of regional and global trends to provide a full picture of investment viability. Instead of drawing local-level conclusions from regional-level observations, we insert local intelligence into regional and global context.

Peerless source
network

Millennium’s analysis is grounded in the insight of the leaders whose decisions make or break investments. Developed over years in the private intelligence industry, Millennium’s network spans the local and national levels, and the leaders of tomorrow alongside those of today, in twenty countries.

Granular focus, tailored intelligence

In contrast to traditional services based on measurable macro trends, Millennium’s analysis is grounded in granular, ‘soft’ intelligence sourced from the ground. We aim to shed light on the things data does not tell you. Built from the bottom up for each project, our approach and methodology responds to our clients’ specific needs, contributing to a fuller, more accurate picture of their risk exposure.

On-the-ground
presence

The sensitive issues our clients come to us for help with cannot be addressed from our offices in London alone. Our 14-strong in-house team is present in Emerging Europe capitals on a permanent basis, maintaining a strong connection with our network and ensuring timely, quality, local intelligence that responds to our clients’ specific challenges.

Services

Strategic advice for market entry and M&A

The political environment of investments in Emerging Europe changes dynamically. We provide investment managers and company boards with a continuous flow of intelligence on political risks facing investments in the region, helping them to foresee and successfully manage emerging risks.

CHALLENGE: A US asset manager client invests in FX and sovereign bonds in Romania, Hungary and Poland. 

MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Millennium collects and analyses intelligence on the factors driving macro asset prices. Information on fiscal and monetary policy shifts from finance ministries and central banks is delivered to the client in a concise weekly brief. 

OUTCOME: The client uses Millennium’s political and policy intelligence to anticipate fluctuations in position value and maximise their return.

Highly targeted, narrowly focused intelligence on key regulatory changes

Changes in regulatory conditions impact the value of investments more than any other variable. Clients turn to us with complex, highly targeted questions regarding the chances of regulatory change in sectors as diverse as banking, telecommunications, transport, energy, and minerals, in Emerging Europe markets. 

CHALLENGE: A European infrastructure fund client takes long political risk through energy investments in three South-East European countries. 

MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Millennium continuously collects and analyses intelligence on regulatory moves in the space and conducts targeted research to anticipate changes. Client receives monthly risk assessments and scenario plans, based on carefully analysed intelligence from central and local government. 

OUTCOME: Millennium’s intelligence has demonstrably helped the client anticipate and mitigate downside risk.

Local, country, regional and global level security threats disrupt operations in-country in several Emerging Europe markets. International sanctions make engagement with local partners risky.  Government- or externally induced changes can quickly alter the level of market complexity. Clients trust Millennium to use its on-the-ground intelligence capabilities to assess these risks and provide advice to aid their management and mitigation. 

CHALLENGE: A financial services client with extensive interests in Ukraine is concerned about security risks emanating from the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, and about the effects of a potential escalation there on its interests country-wide.

 MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Building on a continuous flow of intelligence from the ground, Millennium continuously analyses and assesses the client’s risk exposure. The client receives a monthly update on risk levels based on a composite of local, regional, and global variables, and input towards risk mitigation. 

OUTCOME: Client enjoys confidence in planning Ukrainian operations, hedging against potential risk from changes in the security environment.

For clients who wish to better understand the movers of the market they are entering or expanding in, we provide all-round intelligence on key market stakeholders in both the government and the private sector. Detailed, source-driven profiles of key figures, their agendas and relationships form the basis of tailored engagement strategies to help our clients establish or strengthen their foothold in the market.

CHALLENGE: A banking client was planning a major acquisition in a Balkan market. As part of its pre-M&A due diligence, it wished to better understand the key stakeholders and movements in the target market’s banking sector.

MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Millennium built on its established network in the target country to deliver well-rounded profiles of key stakeholders, their personalities and objectives. We devised an engagement strategy for government stakeholders and another for private sector stakeholders, suited to our client’s commercial objectives in the market. 

OUTCOME: The client went through with the acquisition and used Millennium’s advice on stakeholder engagement to solidify its position and generate growth. 

Emerging Europe markets are known for their dynamic risk landscapes; the battlefield outlook in Ukraine and the government’s stability in Romania often changes from one day to the next. Corporate and asset management clients alike rely on us to monitor the political and regulatory environment for them and provide monthly, bimonthly, or quarterly assessments of risk and opportunity, tailored to their specific commercial interests. 

CHALLENGE: An energy distribution client present in several Central European and Balkans markets was exposed to changes in governmental attitudes to new players on the markets and changes in regulation including price setting and environmental rules. 

MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Relying on local access, Millennium provides a bimonthly update on the high-level political environment of the client’s operation in the country and on regulatory risk and opportunity.

OUTCOME: Client has successfully navigated risk and unlocked value in several rapidly growing markets at a time.

Insight

Address

Millennium Emerging Europe
71-75 Shelton Street,
Covent Garden London WC2H 9JQ

Get in Touch

enquiries@millenniumee.com