The Romanian government will not fall. PM Citu’s departure is possible but unlikely. WHAT’S HAPPENING: After the relatively calm summer days, Romania is back with
Ukraine in 2021: back to the old-new normal
2021 will see Ukraine return to a variation on the pre-2019 norm: balancing between reform and vested interests. Persistent financing difficulties should produce enough pressure to see at least some reform progress.
One year ago, Ukraine seemed ready to embark on a path of sustainable growth, demolishing the oligarchic structures that have throttled the country’s development since independence. But the reform drive has dissipated. Oligarchic power struggles crept back, forcing the sacking of a technocratic government in March and the leadership of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in July, and in October, the Constitutional Court derailed much of the past years’ anti-corruption progress. Relations with the IMF soured, although a rapprochement began late last year.
Junior coalition partner Agreement’s exit will drive an increase in political instability – yet the government appears likely to stay on in minority, for now.
A potent centre-right coalition, if kept together, could usher in a new era of political and economic stability in Romania. This path is dotted with
European funds are likely to be withheld from Poland and Hungary in the next seven-year EU budget amid rule of law (RoL) concerns
All three major EU institutions are adamant that EU financial support should be tied to respecting common European values and the rule of law. Poland