Strategic advice for market entry and M&A
The political environment of investments in Emerging Europe changes dynamically. We provide investment managers and company boards with a continuous flow of intelligence on political risks facing investments in the region, helping them to foresee and successfully manage emerging risks.
CHALLENGE: A US asset manager client invests in FX and sovereign bonds in Romania, Hungary and Poland.
MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Millennium collects and analyses intelligence on the factors driving macro asset prices. Information on fiscal and monetary policy shifts from finance ministries and central banks is delivered to the client in a concise weekly brief.
OUTCOME: The client uses Millennium’s political and policy intelligence to anticipate fluctuations in position value and maximise their return.
Highly targeted, narrowly focused intelligence on key regulatory changes
Changes in regulatory conditions impact the value of investments more than any other variable. Clients turn to us with complex, highly targeted questions regarding the chances of regulatory change in sectors as diverse as banking, telecommunications, transport, energy, and minerals, in Emerging Europe markets.
CHALLENGE: A European infrastructure fund client takes long political risk through energy investments in three South-East European countries.
MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Millennium continuously collects and analyses intelligence on regulatory moves in the space and conducts targeted research to anticipate changes. Client receives monthly risk assessments and scenario plans, based on carefully analysed intelligence from central and local government.
OUTCOME: Millennium’s intelligence has demonstrably helped the client anticipate and mitigate downside risk.
Local, country, regional and global level security threats disrupt operations in-country in several Emerging Europe markets. International sanctions make engagement with local partners risky. Government- or externally induced changes can quickly alter the level of market complexity. Clients trust Millennium to use its on-the-ground intelligence capabilities to assess these risks and provide advice to aid their management and mitigation.
CHALLENGE: A financial services client with extensive interests in Ukraine is concerned about security risks emanating from the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, and about the effects of a potential escalation there on its interests country-wide.
MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Building on a continuous flow of intelligence from the ground, Millennium continuously analyses and assesses the client’s risk exposure. The client receives a monthly update on risk levels based on a composite of local, regional, and global variables, and input towards risk mitigation.
OUTCOME: Client enjoys confidence in planning Ukrainian operations, hedging against potential risk from changes in the security environment.
For clients who wish to better understand the movers of the market they are entering or expanding in, we provide all-round intelligence on key market stakeholders in both the government and the private sector. Detailed, source-driven profiles of key figures, their agendas and relationships form the basis of tailored engagement strategies to help our clients establish or strengthen their foothold in the market.
CHALLENGE: A banking client was planning a major acquisition in a Balkan market. As part of its pre-M&A due diligence, it wished to better understand the key stakeholders and movements in the target market’s banking sector.
MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Millennium built on its established network in the target country to deliver well-rounded profiles of key stakeholders, their personalities and objectives. We devised an engagement strategy for government stakeholders and another for private sector stakeholders, suited to our client’s commercial objectives in the market.
OUTCOME: The client went through with the acquisition and used Millennium’s advice on stakeholder engagement to solidify its position and generate growth.
Emerging Europe markets are known for their dynamic risk landscapes; the battlefield outlook in Ukraine and the government’s stability in Romania often changes from one day to the next. Corporate and asset management clients alike rely on us to monitor the political and regulatory environment for them and provide monthly, bimonthly, or quarterly assessments of risk and opportunity, tailored to their specific commercial interests.
CHALLENGE: An energy distribution client present in several Central European and Balkans markets was exposed to changes in governmental attitudes to new players on the markets and changes in regulation including price setting and environmental rules.
MILLENNIUM SERVICE: Relying on local access, Millennium provides a bimonthly update on the high-level political environment of the client’s operation in the country and on regulatory risk and opportunity.
OUTCOME: Client has successfully navigated risk and unlocked value in several rapidly growing markets at a time.