Insight

Brexit under Boris Johnson

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Britain

Ahead of Boris Johnson’s entry to number 10, we predict that he will be forced to extend the current 31 October Brexit deadline and call a general election. Only a firm majority for a clear Brexit vision can resolve the current impasse In our latest macro brief, we explore the outlook for Brexit now that Boris Johnson is about to replace Theresa May as Britain’s prime minister. We predict that Johnson will be unable to achieve a new deal by the current 31 October deadline, but will instead seek an extension and call an early general election. We conclude that

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European Parliamentary Election

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European Parliament , Political Stability

The recent European parliament elections upset the long-term balance of power within the parliament, portending significant deadlock for the next five years as divisions hamper decision-making. In our latest macro brief, we analyse the results of the recent European Parliament elections. We note that the long-term balance of power within the parliament has been upset, due chiefly to gains for nationalist and eurosceptic parties. We forecast significant deadlock for the next five years, as parliamentary divisions hamper decision-making. We expect that the EU will act sluggishly and will frequently become embroiled in disagreements, and that this will hinder progress on

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Election of Volodymyr Zelensky as President of Ukraine

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Political Stability , Ukraine

In our first macro brief, we examine the implications of Volodymyr Zelensky’s landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential election. We find that in the short term, markets will suffer from a stand-off between president and parliament, but a likely Zelensky win in the upcoming parliamentary elections holds out hope for a speedy recovery. Today we have published our first macro brief. These briefs will analyse political events, providing forecasts and insight from our team of expert analysts. The first brief examines the implications of Volodymyr Zelensky’s landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential election. We predict that the coming months will be dominated

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