Insight

Ukraine in 2021: back to the old-new normal

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IMF , Political Stability , Ukraine

2021 will see Ukraine return to a variation on the pre-2019 norm: balancing between reform and vested interests. Persistent financing difficulties should produce enough pressure to see at least some reform progress. One year ago, Ukraine seemed ready to embark on a path of sustainable growth, demolishing the oligarchic structures that have throttled the country’s development since independence. But the reform drive has dissipated. Oligarchic power struggles crept back, forcing the sacking of a technocratic government in March and the leadership of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in July, and in October, the Constitutional Court derailed much of the

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Despite familiar risks, Romania has a shot at unprecedented stability

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elections , Political Stability , Romania

A potent centre-right coalition, if kept together, could usher in a new era of political and economic stability in Romania. This path is dotted with familiar risks, however. Romania is at a historic crossroads with tremendous opportunities. With the president, the PNL-led government, and many municipalities hailing from the same political camp, the interests of the executive and legislative branches seem to be aligned at last. While slim, the coalition’s majority in parliament should suffice for it to introduce much-needed reforms and a comprehensive fiscal consolidation strategy to set the country on a long-term growth path.  While there are grounds

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Kazakhstan’s Transition under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

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Kazakhstan , Political Stability , Succession

Despite new president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s lip service to reform, continuity in Kazakhstan is almost certain. The country’s geopolitical orientation and economic model will remain unchanged even as former president Nursultan Nazarbayev gradually steps back from public life. In our latest macro brief, we examine developments in Kazakhstan, where Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has succeeded Nursultan Nazarbayev as president. We conclude that, despite lip service to reform, Tokayev will stay on the path set by his predecessor, as Nazarbayev retains decisive power. Kazakhstan’s geopolitical alignment and economic orientation are not expected to change in the medium term. In the longer term, we predict

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European Parliamentary Election

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European Parliament , Political Stability

The recent European parliament elections upset the long-term balance of power within the parliament, portending significant deadlock for the next five years as divisions hamper decision-making. In our latest macro brief, we analyse the results of the recent European Parliament elections. We note that the long-term balance of power within the parliament has been upset, due chiefly to gains for nationalist and eurosceptic parties. We forecast significant deadlock for the next five years, as parliamentary divisions hamper decision-making. We expect that the EU will act sluggishly and will frequently become embroiled in disagreements, and that this will hinder progress on

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Election of Volodymyr Zelensky as President of Ukraine

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Political Stability , Ukraine

In our first macro brief, we examine the implications of Volodymyr Zelensky’s landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential election. We find that in the short term, markets will suffer from a stand-off between president and parliament, but a likely Zelensky win in the upcoming parliamentary elections holds out hope for a speedy recovery. Today we have published our first macro brief. These briefs will analyse political events, providing forecasts and insight from our team of expert analysts. The first brief examines the implications of Volodymyr Zelensky’s landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential election. We predict that the coming months will be dominated

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